I have a theory that the MAGA movement acts a lot like an animal herd, with Trump as the alpha. Wherever he goes, they follow. Even into the Great Desert of insurrection and the Big Lie, promising verdant fields for grazing, they followed faithfully. Occasionally, younger competitors rise up to challenge him, like Ron DeSantis, but MAGA’s alpha instinctively destroys competitors to maintain control and selects non-competitive milque toast “betas” to serve as his potential replacement. The only exception might be a female that he quietly considers a potential (running) mate.
At the same time, the many prosecutors who have investigated Trump have inadvertently behaved quite a bit like a pack of wolves hunting. They have been biding their time, collecting evidence, not willing to go first. But now that the first wolf has sprung and sunk his teeth into the alpha… the others will soon jump onto Trump like a pack that smells blood. But the cagey alpha wolf will generally let a “cannon fodder” pack member make the first attack, partially to test the prey’s reaction, and partially to weaken the prey a little before attacking himself.
If I were an alien ethologist observing our planet — a scientist who studies the behavior of animals in their natural environment — this is what I’d be tuned into. Understanding how the alpha and betas strategize, attack and fend off attacks. To me, Trump looks like an aging wildebeest, who has successfully ruled his herd for quite a while. But at the same time, Jack Smith and his pack look quite a bit like wolves or lions, looking to take down the alpha instead of picking off the weak and infirm in the crowd. The fate of our democracy depends on it!
Prosecutors as Wolves
So let’s dig into this subject. A team of researchers from AEPA Euskadi in Spain and Hampshire College in Massachusetts developed models for wolf pack behavior. [1, 2] What we can learn from this work is compelling. First, there is an optimum pack size — four or five adults — just enough to surround and kill the prey. These results coincide with prior research that indicates the same is true for other species that hunt in packs, such as wild dogs, jackals and coyotes. It’s notable that Trump is now being hunted by four or five prosecutions, with the fifth being the SEC investigation into the SPAC that is funding Truth Social. There is possibly an underlying rationale for hunting pack size based on tactical effectiveness.
Second, in general, as the prey is encircled, the goal is to give them no place to run, as wolves take their time to wear down the prey and then take turns taunting and injuring him. At some point, the killing move is implemented, and the entire pack will rush in to share the kill. The process is slow and deliberative, and the goal is ensure that there is no escape for the prey.
Computer simulations of hunting packs discovered that the wolves in a pack did not need to communicate with the other members. Similarly, this may mean that coordination between prosecutors is not necessary to achieve an optimal pack strategy, they just need to follow the rule of not getting in another wolf’s way. Also, research at Yellowstone Park also demonstrated that wolves are actually risk-averse and prefer keep at a safe distance if they can, leaving other members of the pack to do the dangerous work of getting in closer to prey, which can kick or gore them to death. Similarly, the alpha predator, in our casae the special prosecutor Jack Smith, is actually letting other prosecutors go first while he waits to make his killing move.
Trump as the Alpha Encircled
But what of the behavior of prey? What does research show us about how prey behave when under attack? This is where the human model of Donald Trump seems to conflict with the natural evolution of optimal prey behavior. Most animals focus their anti-predator efforts on avoiding and preventing encounters, whereas Trump seems to almost invite it… by pilfering classified documents, attempting to overturn elections, and inciting insurrection. Usually, an animal’s antipredator behavior is designed to minimize its costs and maximize its effectiveness for surviving predation. Trump has not done this, not by a longshot.
It turns out that the preferred strategy for surviving an encounter with predators once encircled — is to deter an attack through intimidation and fighting back. [3] This seems to be Trump’s go to strategy. Also, prey that live in large groups can intimidate a predator by mobbing it, which explains why Trump is egging his followers via stochastic terrorism. Prey can also use behavior to signal how much of an alpha is it. For example, lizards actually perform pushups to scare off predators — signals that are energetically demanding. Since Trump does not have to fitness level required to demonstrate physical strength, he has actually relied heavily on intimating his sexual prowess. In fact, the Access Hollywood tape, which would have ended any other candidate’s campaign, may have actually worked to Trump’s advantage at a subconscious level. At the same time, the clever ripostes by Stormy Daniels may be more effective than most would assume — taunts like “Game on Tiny!” and “I’ve seen him naked — there’s no way he could be scarier with his clothes on in court” probably inflict a significant cost in terms of their impact on the collective subconscious in the MAGA herd.
There are other behaviors to look for. Some animals, including opossums and some reptiles, feign death to discourage attack, since many predators are not interested in carrion. Trump might suddenly report some illness, in order to gain sympathy and curtail prosecutions. Threatened animals may also sacrifice nonessential body parts to distract the predator and permit them to escape. This is something Trump is likely to do, by throwing his loyal partners and attorneys under the bus.
As for the rest of the herd, there is likely some genetic programming for the rest of the heard to panic when the alpha is taken down, which helps to send out a warning for other members of the herd to scatter and flee. However, evolutionary programming will drive them to quickly select a new alpha to lead the herd. Trump may look “too big to fail”, but once multiple indictments have sunk their teeth into him… he’s likely going down faster than Silicon Valley Bank. After this happens, there will be a major competition to become the next alpha for the Republican party.
And as for Trump loyalists whining about investigating the prosecutors… they will probably not get too far, because honestly, they are followers, not leaders. Very few are going to vote for Pence, and even fewer for Jordan and Gaetz. Liz Cheney has more testosterone that all of them put together. Look for Christie, Sununu and Pompeo to present themselves as the new leader of the pack. Christie is already predicting ominously that Trump’s campaign is “not going to end nicely, his end will not be a calm and quiet conclusion.”
A Litmus Test for Humans
If you see Trump as someone who fundamentally cannot be prosecuted, you are likely a beta and have built in programming to kowtow to figures of authority. But if you see Trump as an aging and weakening alpha, then you probably have the genetics of an alpha competitor, one who can sense weakness and the opportunity to overtake a diminishing alpha. Thus, the more successful of Trump’s competitors will jockey more aggressively for the alpha position, sooner rather than later… but in a way that does not disrespect the core MAGA cult follower. But still, they’ll avoid direct combat with Trump as long as possible, hoping that Ron DeSantis will take take one for the team. But once it looks like Trump is going down, they’ll all rush into to pronounce that it’s time to look forward to the future, rather than endlessly re-litigating the past.
So what is the takeaway here? First, none of these prosecutions will end quickly, the typical case requires over a year to resolve, and Trump has a history of delaying legal proceedings. Second, Trump will not be admitting guilt or taking a plea in any of the prosecutions. Once he does, and is a convicted felon, it weakens his case against the others. More likely, he will suddenly announce some medical problem, and request Nixon’s deal — a Presidential pardon in exchange for relief from all prosecutions, to retire to his seaside mansion. Well, that’s my prediction!
Legal eagles, please take note: I’m not an attorney — but I sure like to blather about stuff like this online like I was — however, I am a scientist, and these are my prediction based on my understanding of the evolutionary behavior of “narcissistic prey”. Or maybe I’m an alien ethologist. In any case, I’d love to engage in civil discourse about this theory with you in the comments below. No ad hominem attacks please!
References:
[1] Escobedo R, Muro C, Spector L, Coppinger RP. Group size, individual role differentiation and effectiveness of cooperation in a homogeneous group of hunters. J R Soc Interface. 2014 Apr 2;11(95):20140204. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2014.0204. PMID: 24694897; PMCID: PMC4006263.
[2] C. Muro, R. Escobedo, L. Spector, R.P. Coppinger, Wolf-pack (Canis lupus) hunting strategies emerge from simple rules in computational simulations. Behavioural Processes, Volume 88, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 192–197, ISSN 0376–6357, doi: 10.1016/j.beproc.2011.09.006.
[3] Rosier, R. L. & Langkilde, T. (2011) Behavior Under Risk: How Animals Avoid Becoming Dinner. Nature Education Knowledge 2(11):8